RIOTRIOT's Official 2026 Grammys Predictions [UPDATED WITH RESULTS]
Beat the system with HUNTR/X
ROSÉ and Bruno Mars about to bust out some Sleep Token
As usual, I only pontificated on the categories I care about. Results will go up after the awards air on Feburary 1.
UPDATE: I’ve now added in the real results below my predictions in each category. How we got killed. Last year, I nailed just under half by being too cynical. This year, by not being cynical enough, only four of my 22 will-win predictions turned out to be correct, and only two more should-wins would have added to that clobbering. I mixed up which of the Big Four would be Bad Bunny despite it seeming kinda obvious now that the other Album winners had no obvious rival. Got all my Kendrick and Turnstile notions backwards. I bet on the wrong legacy winners (Sabrina Carpenter, too fresh, Wet Leg, too cool) when I should’ve known Billie Eilish and Doechii would be weaponized for their least potent moments. When there was a surprise (The Cure), I missed it. And last year’s surprisingly great show did not prepare me for the gruesome Jelly Roll to pillage Tyler Childers’ village like the 2024 election all over again. Oh, the humanity.
Best Album Cover
Tyler, the Creator, Chromakopia
Djo, The Crux
Bad Bunny, DeBÍ TiRAR MáS FOToS
Perfume Genius, Glory
Wet Leg, Moisturizer
Like everything else, Tyler’s visual sense was more striking when he was younger. I don’t see the big deal with Djo or Perfume Genius’ album covers other than they’re colorful and mildly ambitious in scale. Wet Leg’s Rhian Teasdale caught in demonic visage is the obvious winner here, but I don’t see the Academy voting that way. I see them finding something more poignant than I do about the still image of lawn chairs in Bad Bunny’s figurative backyard.
Should Win: Wet Leg, Moisturizer
Will Win: Bad Bunny, DeBÍ TiRAR MáS FOToS
Did Win: Tyler, the Creator, Chromakopia
Best Music Video
Sabrina Carpenter, “Manchild”
Clipse, “So Be It”
Doechii, “Anxiety”
OK Go, “Love”
Sade, “Young Lion”
I had to watch the OK Go video to find out why these proto-YouTube also-also-rans were being nominated in 2026, and it’s not bad, though their Wiki makes a point of saying “the band is known for its quirky music videos which are often elaborately choreographed to be filmed in a single long take and make extensive use of practical effects and optical illusions.” They won for the treadmill thing 20 years ago, and their Blur-bungled power-pop is unlikely to sustain international attention on its own, so it’s logical that they’d do this and they’re also good at it; why does it feel a little sad? (Especially when it’s also my dream to make their exact same living?) Maybe because after all that painstaking umbrella choreography and Rube Goldberg machine-building they’re gonna lose to Sabrina anyway.
Should Win: Sabrina Carpenter, “Manchild”
Will Win: Sabrina Carpenter, “Manchild”
Did Win: Doechii, “Anxiety”
Best Dance/Electronic Album
FKA twigs, Eusexua
Fred again.., Ten Days
PinkPantheress, Fancy That
RÜFÜS DU SOL, Inhale/Exhale
Skrillex, F— U SKRILLEX YOU THINK UR ANDY WARHOL BUT UR NOT!! <3
Skrillex has won nine Grammys, so don’t bet against the loosest and most fun confetti bomb he’s lobbed in a decade even with that faux-insurgent title. But don’t count out the previously untested Pink, who’s even snappier and prone to charm the voters with her first-ever noms.
Should Win: PinkPantheress, Fancy That
Will Win: PinkPantheress, Fancy That
Did Win: FKA twigs, Eusexua
Best Country Song
Tyler Childers, “Bitin’ List”
Shaboozey, “Good News”
Zach Top, “I Never Lie”
Lainey Wilson, “Somewhere Over Laredo”
Miranda Lambert and Chris Stapleton, “A Song to Sing”
Chris Stapleton is exactly what it takes to make me not care about Miranda. Zach and Lainey hover around my interest. Shaboozey had his chance last year. That leaves the best thing to happen to country since, well, Miranda. Since the Grammys have handsomely rewarded his fellow Nashville subverters the Chicks and Kacey Musgraves, the latter with this statue last year, I’d say Tyler’s high on the bitin’ list.
Should Win: Tyler Childers, “Bitin’ List”
Will Win: Tyler Childers, “Bitin’ List”
Did Win: Tyler Childers, “Bitin’ List”
Best Traditional Country Album
Charley Crockett, Dollar a Day
Lukas Nelson, American Romance
Willie Nelson, Oh What a Beautiful World
Margo Price, Hard Headed Woman
Zach Top, Ain’t in It for My Health
Even if it’s mere coincidence, it looks real sour that the Grammys dismantled the parent category of Beyoncé’s Album of the Year immediately after she finally won, especially considering how many bumpkin yokels cried about it. So welcome to the first-ever Best Traditional Country Album contenders, all easily dominated by Margo Price unless the institution that gave Willie a Lifetime Achievement Award 26 years ago feels the need to flatter him again at 92. But don’t underestimate Zach Top, the fresh blood this category was made for. In fact, I may be doing just that.
Should Win: Margo Price, Hard Headed Woman
Will Win: Zach Top, Ain’t in It for My Health
Did Win: Zach Top, Ain’t in It for My Health
Best Contemporary Country Album
Kelsea Ballerini, Patterns
Tyler Childers, Snipe Hunter
Eric Church, Evangeline vs. The Machine
Jelly Roll, Beautifully Broken
Miranda Lambert, Postcards From Texas
Is Miranda peddling “contemporary country” these days? The only thing anyone in this grouping has in common is that they’ve all engaged with something outside of the genre at some point: Eric with rock, Kelsea with pop, Jelly with juggalos, Miranda with music critics, and Tyler’s masterpiece with India, Australia, anywhere but here. About to embark on Kid Rock’s trashapalooza, it’s time Miranda passed the baton to someone a little more in tune with the times.
Should Win: Tyler Childers, Snipe Hunter
Will Win: Tyler Childers, Snipe Hunter
Did Win: Jelly Roll, Beautifully Broken
Best Metal Performance
Dream Theater, “Night Terror”
Ghost, “Lachryma”
Sleep Token, “Emergence”
Spiritbox, “Soft Spine”
Turnstile, “Birds”
A funny one, even more than usual. Sleep Token are so bad they make me sympathetic to their masked forebears Ghost, whose hooky song at least sounds like ‘80s Clapton (key change ending!) rather than ChatGPT. Turnstile and Spiritbox are both actually popular but only Spiritbox is Actually Metal. “Birds” is, however, the most hardcore song to ever catch a Grammy nom, and the only one of these from an album I actually like, Jethro Tull as it would be if it distastefully won. Speaking of Jethro Tull, I’ve never been interested in Dream Theater and can’t start now.
Should Win: Turnstile, “Birds” (sorry)
Will Win: Spiritbox, “Soft Spine”
Did Win: Turnstile, “Birds”
Best Rock Performance
Amyl and the Sniffers, “U Should Not Be Doing That”
Linkin Park, “The Emptiness Machine”
Turnstile, “Never Enough”
Hayley Williams, “Mirtazapine”
Yungblud feat. Nuno Bettencourt, Frank Bello, Adam Wakeman & II “Changes (Live From Villa Park) Back to the Beginning”
Grammy rock categories are reliable informants on who’s crossed the rubicon to respectability/uncoolness, famously long after the artist’s prime. Hayley Williams has been marked for it for some time, Zombie Linkin Park but of course. Turnstile you’ve been hearing the snickers for years. Yungblud I’m not touching that credit list or song title with a ten foot pole to figure out what’s going on but I’m pretty sure it’s a live Sabbath cover, huh. And look, Amyl’s been on Dave Matthews’ imprint for some time. The Turnstile album is good, but they’re not far off from Sleep Token in quantized eclecto-stiffness. Amyl’s the only one of these rocking at 100% human flesh and blood capacity, which isn’t always everything, but it might as well be here. Williams, unfortunately, might be respectable for just a little bit longer than she’s uncool.
Should Win: Amyl and the Sniffers, “U Should Not Be Doing That”
Will Win: Hayley Williams, “Mirtazapine”
Did Win: Yungblud feat. Nuno Bettencourt, Frank Bello, Adam Wakeman & II “Changes (Live From Villa Park) Back to the Beginning”
Best Rock Song
Nine Inch Nails, “As Alive as You Need Me to Be”
Sleep Token, “Caramel”
Hayley Williams, “Glum”
Turnstile, “Never Enough”
Yungblud, “Zombie”
And these are even shittier. I didn’t notice that NIN song during their spectacular arena tour last year, so I’m willing to bet it’s the weakest song they played. Turnstile is better than Hayley (is better than Yungblud is better than Sleep Token) so just give it to them already before they get worse.
Should Win: Turnstile, “Never Enough”
Will Win: Turnstile, “Never Enough”
Did Win: Nine Inch Nails, “As Alive as You Need Me to Be”
Best Rock Album
Deftones, Private Music
Haim, I Quit
Linkin Park, From Zero
Turnstile, Never Enough
Yungblud, Idols
I have no idea how Yungblud secured all these noms, it’s certainly not some Grammy fairy dust like H.E.R. or Black Pumas or Brandi Carlile. Even Linkin Park fans hated that dogshit reboot. I wouldn’t mind Haim bagging this — though I do wish it rocked as much as Women in Music Pt. III — but it’s probably going to Turnstile. Still, Deftones are the only ones in this category who really built their own weirdo-MOR path over the last three(!) decades, stayed hip against all odds, and kind of shrugged their way to this echelon of success while still giving up at least a couple singles for the canon. I’d be happiest to see them accept the trophy.
Should Win: Deftones, Private Music
Will Win: Haim, I Quit
Did Win: Turnstile, Never Enough
Best Alternative Music Performance
Bon Iver, “Everything Is Peaceful Love”
The Cure, “Alone”
Turnstile, “Seein’ Stars”
Wet Leg, “Mangetout”
Hayley Williams, “Parachute”
Turnstile feat. Hayley would be a shoo-in if anyone could actually hear her on the song. Meanwhile, which is it, are they “rock” or “alternative?” Bon Iver still sucks and the Cure still get too much respect but the latter might finally score their first(!) statue ever for serving up the shoegaze the cool kids wouldn’t dare request an academy’s consideration for. Wet Leg in the house, thank god.
Should Win: Wet Leg, “Mangetout”
Will Win: Wet Leg, “Mangetout”
Did Win: The Cure, “Alone”
Best Alternative Music Album
Bon Iver, SABLE, fABLE
The Cure, Songs of a Lost World
Tyler, The Creator, Don’t Tap the Glass
Wet Leg, Moisturizer
Hayley Williams, Ego Death at a Bachelorette Party
This one will be funny. It’s not that I’m closed off to Tyler making “alternative music albums,” it’s that Don’t Tap the Glass is hip-house-electro. Shouldn’t it be robbing PinkPantheress? Is Azealia Banks “alternative?” Well, I guess she did have Ariel Pink on there. Funny how those two turned out. Even funnier compared to how Tyler did.
Should Win: Wet Leg, Moisturizer
Will Win: Tyler, The Creator, Don’t Tap the Glass
Did Win: The Cure, Songs of a Lost World
Best Rap Performance
Cardi B, “Outside”
Clipse feat. Kendrick Lamar, “Chains & Whips”
Doechii, “Anxiety”
Kendrick Lamar feat. Lefty Gunplay, “TV Off”
Tyler, The Creator feat. Teezo Touchdown, “Darling, I”
It sucks so hard to be rooting against Doechii but the Grammys will do that to you. Cardi deservedly already won Best Rap Album in 2019 over Pusha T, so why not give it to him and Malice? Kendrick’s basically competing with himself here. Mustardddddd killed at Lincoln Financial Field, though.
Should Win: Clipse feat. Kendrick Lamar, “Chains & Whips”
Will Win: Kendrick Lamar feat. Lefty Gunplay, “TV Off”
Did Win: Clipse feat. Kendrick Lamar, “Chains & Whips”
Best Rap Song
Doechii, “Anxiety”
Clipse feat. John Legend, “The Birds Don’t Sing”
Tyler, The Creator feat. GloRilla, Sexyy Red & Lil Wayne, “Sticky”
GloRilla, “TGIF”
Kendrick Lamar feat. Lefty Gunplay, “TV Off”
Seriously how is Tyler “alternative” but not Doechii singing in the shower over Gotye? Anyway, lamenting again that the only song in this round that flat-out stinks is by one of my favorite young rappers sampling one of my favorite songs. I’m happy to see Glo is the only double nominee; that GloRious posse cut might be the only time I’ve ever felt Tyler, The Creator deserves an award. It’s going to Clipse, though. You don’t hire John Legend unless it’s a done deal.
Should Win: Tyler, The Creator feat. GloRilla, Sexyy Red & Lil Wayne, “Sticky”
Will Win: Clipse feat. John Legend, “The Birds Don’t Sing”
Did Win: Kendrick Lamar feat. Lefty Gunplay, “TV Off”
Best Rap Album
Clipse, Let God Sort Em Out
GloRilla, Glorious
JID, God Does Like Ugly
Kendrick Lamar, GNX
Tyler, The Creator, Chromakopia
The Clipse album feels obvious but they’re actually untested. It would be fun to see Glo win but she won’t. This isn’t Tyler’s year either (though arguably it is, having the chance to annihiliate his rap and alt-rock rivals). Like every other category they’re matched up in, it comes down to Clipse versus Kung Fu Kenny, and for once it may be Kendrick’s to lose.
Should Win: Clipse, Let God Sort Em Out
Will Win: Clipse, Let God Sort Em Out
Did Win: Kendrick Lamar, GNX
Best Dance Pop Recording
Selena Gomez & Benny Blanco, “Bluest Flame”
Lady Gaga, “Abracadabra”
Zara Larsson, “Midnight Sun”
Tate McRae, “Just Keep Watching”
Pinkpantheress, “Illegal”
People who may know more than me seem to think this is Gaga’s year and I don’t know why that makes me so sad. I love Gaga and I liked Mayhem, certainly more than anything else she’s done since Artpop. It must be because she once repped some kind of vanguard of weirdness even when she really wasn’t, definitively proven after she plunged into every conventional EGOT move she could following her best album inching a hair towards flopping. Flopping is necessary to be weird. She made her choice. I’m not mad. But she used to write songs as sweeping and stage-swallowing as “Midnight Sun,” which I’m rooting for despite the fact Zara Larsson will be a skinny blonde Scandinavian normie forever.
Should Win: Zara Larsson, “Midnight Sun”
Will Win: Lady Gaga, “Abracadabra”
Did Win: Lady Gaga, “Abracadabra”
Best Pop Solo Performance
Justin Bieber, “Daisies”
Sabrina Carpenter, “Manchild”
Lady Gaga, “Disease”
Chappell Roan, “The Subway”
Lola Young, “Messy”
Look, Bieber’s performing, “Daisies” is an actual good song, you want to throw him a bone, give him this one. Especially because it will make people mad when he mows down four women who are much brighter and more talented. I want people mad at Bieber.
Should Win: Justin Bieber, “Daisies”
Will Win: Sabrina Carpenter, “Manchild”
Did Win: Lola Young, “Messy”
Best Pop Duo/Group Performance
Cynthia Erivo & Ariana Grande, “Defying Gravity”
HUNTR/X, “Golden”
Katseye, “Gabriela”
ROSÉ feat. Bruno Mars, “APT.”
SZA feat. Kendrick Lamar, “30 for 30”
Whole buncha stuff I can’t wait to see go away. I liked KPop Demon Hunters but the music was bland. Wicked suxx for good. Increasingly feeling Katseye do also. Kendrick and SZA’s world domination is too exhausting to try and recall that specific tune. That leaves the only one of these I’m not sick of, a cute little bubblepunk trifle that held steady in the top ten during a terrible year for the Hot 100, featuring perpetual ringer Bruno Mars. But unless he retains his iron grip on the Grammys, it feels like this one goes to the movies.
Should Win: ROSÉ feat. Bruno Mars, “APT.”
Will Win: HUNTR/X, “Golden”
Did Win: Cynthia Erivo & Ariana Grande, “Defying Gravity”
Best Pop Vocal Album
Justin Bieber, Swag
Sabrina Carpenter, Man’s Best Friend
Miley Cyrus, Something Beautiful
Lady Gaga, Mayhem
Teddy Swims, I’ve Tried Everything But Therapy — Part 2
Say bye forever to Teddy Swims and the unthinkable: a Miley album demanding respect. Probably Swag, too. That leaves two titans, one much more conventional than she appears, and one much less. Unless this really is the Year of the Gaga, I wager Sabrina repeats last year’s feat.
Should Win: Sabrina Carpenter, Man’s Best Friend
Will Win: Sabrina Carpenter, Man’s Best Friend
Did Win: Lady Gaga, Mayhem
Best New Artist
Olivia Dean
Katseye
The Marias
Addison Rae
Sombr
Leon Thomas
Alex Warren
Lola Young
Alex Warren should be arrested for being born, Addison Rae doesn’t need a new Gramophone to drink out of, the Marias have been around too long, Sombr scks, Lola would be fun but this ain’t the Brit Awards, and Katseye would be fun but…well, actually it’s about time they anointed a K-Pop act and they did gentrify the stuff. Leon Thomas has the odds because he’s the only one of these nominated in two of the big four, but I say Olivia Dean has the most Best New Artist energy.
Should Win: Lola Young
Will Win: Olivia Dean
Did Win: Olivia Dean
Song of the Year
Lady Gaga, “Abracadabra”
Doechii, “Anxiety”
ROSÉ feat. Bruno Mars, “APT.”
Bad Bunny, “DtMF”
HUNTR/X, “Golden”
Kendrick Lamar feat. SZA, “Luther”
Sabrina Carpenter, “Manchild”
Billie Eilish, “Wildflower”
Bet against Kendrick for a song almost as big as “Not Like Us” that’s also his most traditional Grammy fare ever? It’s got fine odds at least. Perpetual loser Gaga ain’t winning for this one after years of playing the respectability game and coming up nada. Billie’s voters shot their wad too early. Bruno’s are tired. K-Pop Demon Hunters may pull it off at the Oscars but I don’t think here. I hope Doechii’s lone work of remarkable laziness is not vindicated. “Manchild” seems too silly but I can see it; historically she’d have just the right amount of conventionality to make a likable pop star crushing it feel ever so slightly like a disappointment. But I say she’s the most likable here and also the most “song.” More on “DtMF” in a moment.
Should Win: Sabrina Carpenter, “Manchild”
Will Win: Kendrick Lamar feat. SZA, “Luther”
Did Win: Billie Eilish, “Wildflower”
Record of the Year
Lady Gaga, “Abracadabra”
Doechii, “Anxiety”
ROSÉ feat. Bruno Mars, “APT.”
Bad Bunny, “DtMF”
Chappell Roan, “The Subway”
Kendrick Lamar feat. SZA, “Luther”
Sabrina Carpenter, “Manchild”
Billie Eilish, “Wildflower”
Same crop as the Song of the Year nominees, minus “Golden” switched out for a Chappell Roan song I don’t believe lit anyone on fire. In the past I would’ve said that guarantees her a victory. But I’m going to bet on Super Bowl-bound Bad Bunny, whose song is uplifting, pretty, and has a communal vibe, the exact qualities that make him the anti-Trump in the face of the conscientous citizens’ war against ICE. Not that any of this shit matters to any of them, but I see “DtMF” getting over on meaningful gestures, and of this strangely gravitas-free batch from actual heavy hitters, it should.
Should Win: Bad Bunny, “DtMF”
Will Win: Bad Bunny, “DtMF”
Did Win: Kendrick Lamar feat. SZA, “Luther”
Album of the Year
Bad Bunny, DeBÍ TiRAR MáS FOToS
Justin Bieber, Swag
Sabrina Carpenter, Man’s Best Friend
Clipse, Let God Sort Em Out
Lady Gaga, Mayhem
Kendrick Lamar, GNX
Leon Thomas, Mutt
Tyler, the Creator, Chromakopia
If I forgot Chromakopia existed, so did Grammy voters. I never knew Leon Thomas existed, but that hasn’t stopped them before. Grammy voters will thankfully never stand with Bieber. They’re also sadly immune to 14-time winner Gaga in the Big Four categories. I don’t see Sabrina being awarded as an album artist this time. Bad Bunny, maybe, but that would require a much bigger virtue signal than my left-field bet for “DtMF” already allows for. That leaves two extraordinarily respected rap acts. I want my favorite underdogs Push and Malice to go home with the gold while simultaneously hoping a snub will make their priorities nasty again. And I believe this is where Kendrick finally gets his biggest trophy. Well, except for the Pulitzer.
Should Win: Clipse, Let God Sort Em Out
Will Win: Kendrick Lamar, GNX
Did Win: Bad Bunny, DeBÍ TiRAR MáS FOToS