RIOTRIOT's Official 2025 Grammys Predictions [UPDATED WITH RESULTS]
Good luck, babe!
The tortured voter’s department herself: Taylor Swift
And yes, I only sounded off on the categories I care about.
UPDATE: I’ve now added in the real results below my predictions in each category. If you’d like to keep score, 10 out of 21 of my will-win predictions bore out, and eight of my should-wins did, which includes four should-wins that actually did win despite my more cynical predictions that they would not. Progress!(?)
Best Music Video
A$AP Rocky, “Tailor Swif”
Charli XCX, “360”
Eminem, “Houdini”
Kendrick Lamar, “Not Like Us”
Taylor Swift feat. Post Malone, “Fortnight”
It’s astonishing that of the two instant classic music videos released in 2024, A$AP Rocky’s eye-popping “Taylor Swif” was nominated but not future player-of-the-game Sabrina Carpenter for the hysterically bloody “Taste,” which I guess was too grisly or too lezzy or both. While there was once a promising streak of winners for this award that included “Formation,” Humble,” “This Is America,” and “Old Town Road,” every one of them year-defining and artistically deserving, the last two winners were the real T-Swif and the Beatles. So short of a “Not Like Us” sweep that’s in no way guaranteed, the billionaire probably expects returns on “Fortnight.”
Should Win: A$AP Rocky, “Tailor Swif”
Will Win: Taylor Swift feat. Post Malone, “Fortnight”
Did Win: Kendrick Lamar, “Not Like Us”
Best Dance/Electronic Album
Charli XCX, Brat
Four Tet, Three
Justice, Hyperdrama
Kaytranada, Timeless
Zedd, Telos
It won’t be Zedd. Kieran Hebden is another longshot but there’s precedent for honoring Aphex Twin long after his legend was built and his recent Coachella clout might matter. It’s odd that his bud Fred Again.., the previous winner and nominee in a different dance category was shut out here. Kaytranada and Justice have both won before, so they’re in play. But no one was more hyped up in 2024 than Charli and unlike her other nominated categories, there’s no real competition here. And despite my longtime adoration for Four Tet, I can live with that.
Should Win: Charli XCX, Brat
Will Win: Charli XCX, Brat
Did Win: Charli XCX, Brat
Best Country Song
Beyoncé, “Texas Hold ‘Em”
Post Malone feat. Morgan Wallen, “I Had Some Help”
Jelly Roll, “I Am Not Okay”
Kacey Musgraves, “The Architect”
Shaboozey, “A Bar Song (Tipsy)”
I’d like to think we’ve moved past once-dominant Grammy pap like Jelly Roll’s sweeping nothing ballad. Neither Posty nor Wallen have ever showed awards-show legs in that Drake way; too obviously algorithmically mercenary to make the necessary performative overtures. That is, A-listers with a capital A and artists with a lowercase one. Kacey’s moment is over and she’s arguably less country than anyone else in this category. Giving Beyoncé country awards is exactly the kind of shitlib hiring-more-women-guards service the Grammys were made for, though I feel worse for Shaboozey’s less-publicized snubbing at the CMAs and got much more enjoyment out of his hit.
Should Win: Shaboozey, “A Bar Song (Tipsy)”
Will Win: Beyoncé, “Texas Hold ‘Em”
Did Win: Kacey Musgraves, “The Architect”
Best Country Album
Beyoncé, Cowboy Carter
Chris Stapleton, Higher
Lainey Wilson, Whirlwind
Kacey Musgraves, Deeper Well
Post Malone, F-1 Trillion
And this one’s even more of a no-brainer in that regard. Deserving, too.
Should Win: Beyoncé, Cowboy Carter
Will Win: Beyoncé, Cowboy Carter
Did Win: Beyoncé, Cowboy Carter
Best Metal Performance
Gojira, Marina Viotti & Victor le Masne, “Mea Culpa (Ah! Ça Ira!)”
Judas Priest, “Crown of Horns”
Knocked Loose feat. Poppy, “Suffocate”
Metallica, “Screaming Suicide”
Spiritbox, “Cellar Door”
Yes, it’s dumb to bet against previous winners Judas Priest or Metallica, and I’ve heard good things about the newest Priest album, but did you even know the Metallica existed? So this feels like a good time to bet on Gojira’s widely-seen and -praised Olympics display, even if I’m always on Poppy’s side. Knocked Loose isn’t the first hardcore outfit nominated, but it would be fun to see a much more abrasive act prevail when the much more debatable Turnstile got shut out three times in 2023.
Should Win: Knocked Loose feat. Poppy, “Suffocate”
Will Win: Gojira, Marina Viotti & Victor le Masne, “Mea Culpa (Ah! Ça Ira!)”
Did Win: Gojira, Marina Viotti & Victor le Masne, “Mea Culpa (Ah! Ça Ira!)”
Best Rock Performance
The Beatles, “Now and Then”
The Black Keys, “Beautiful People (Stay High)”
Green Day, “The American Dream Is Killing Me”
Idles, “Gift Horse”
Pearl Jam, “Dark Matter”
St. Vincent, “Broken Man”
Listen to me. I loved Green Day and Pearl Jam as a kid. Neither has made a good-enough album in a quarter-century(!) and believe me, I’ve gone deep. I’ve checked. The Black Keys were only ever seat-fillers for Jack White, and he put out something (good) this year so what gives? Idles are proof punk can suck without having anything to do with emo, and the Beatles have gotten real lazy since John died. I don’t love St. Vincent either, but “Broken Man” is actually a cool collection of dynamics and sounds, plus Dave Grohl plays on it, lest you thought he was curiously absent from these heads on Mount Washedmore. But the Grammys exist for one thing and one thing only: empty symbolic gestures, and their I-guess-anti-Trump song (who could be bothered to check?) is gonna stick it to Cheeto man so good.
Should Win: St. Vincent, “Broken Man”
Will Win: Green Day, “The American Dream Is Killing Me”
Did Win: The Beatles, “Now and Then”
Best Rock Song
The Black Keys, “Beautiful People (Stay High)”
Green Day, “Dilemma”
Idles, “Gift Horse”
Pearl Jam, “Dark Matter”
St. Vincent, “Broken Man”
Somehow Pearl Jam is the least Grammy to me of these five, and that album wasn’t bad, but I also wish it was more, which is very Grammy. “Dilemma” was Green Day’s best song in years, and I also wish that meant more.
Should Win: St. Vincent, “Broken Man”
Will Win: Green Day, “Dilemma”
Did Win: St. Vincent, “Broken Man”
Best Rock Album
The Black Crowes, Happiness Bastards
Fontaines D.C., Romance
Idles, Tangk
Green Day, Saviors
Jack White, No Name
Pearl Jam, Dark Matter
The Rolling Stones, Hackney Diamonds
Wait, they added two extra spots to make sure Jack White and the Stones were in there! I’m sure a Black Crowes album titled Happiness Bastards is better than other Black Crowes albums, but I will never find out. I wish I never found out that Tangk is not better than other Idles albums. I liked things on the Stones record, but when they use the word “hackney” themselves, listen. Fontaines are somehow in the midst of completing that Arctic Monkeys metamorphosis into one of the Biggest Bands provided their next album is AM. Green Day will never again make a new album that anyone cares about, and they’ll also never again make an album that isn’t nominated for this award. That leaves Jack White, the only star of this ilk whose lesser work still ain’t hackwork, just respectably weirdo indulgences, and whose best post-Stripes work unquestionably includes this record. And while Grammy voters are historically fuckheads, I think even they might notice.
Should Win: Jack White, No Name
Will Win: Jack White, No Name
Did Win: The Rolling Stones, Hackney Diamonds
Best Alternative Music Performance
Cage the Elephant, “Neon Pill”
Fontaines D.C., “Starburster”
Kim Gordon, “Bye Bye”
Nick Cave & the Bad Seeds, “Song of the Lake”
St. Vincent, “Flea”
In a world where there wasn’t much, much bigger fish to fry on the order of, oh, the world’s richest man now having access to my Social Security fund, I would insist this institution be fined for even making me type the words “Cage the Elephant” in 2025. I know Fontaines and Nick Cave fans can rejoice, but only Kim Gordon, 71-year-old rage-rapper earning her first-ever Grammy nods, matters to me. And she will not win.
Should Win: Kim Gordon, “Bye Bye”
Will Win: St. Vincent, “Flea”
Did Win: St. Vincent, “Flea”
Best Alternative Music Album
Brittany Howard, What Now
Clairo, Charm
Kim Gordon, The Collective
Nick Cave & the Bad Seeds, Wild God
St. Vincent, All Born Screaming
Even more than usual, this is loaded with well-respected vets I don’t personally care about; even Clairo feels like someone I’ve been ignoring press emails about for more than a decade. Unless Grammy voters are sick of St. Vincent and remember Brittany Howard caters even more to their homogenized criteria for respectability, I think this is another instance of Annie Clark vacuuming up Kim Gordon’s flowers.
Should Win: Kim Gordon, The Collective
Will Win: St. Vincent, All Born Screaming
Did Win: St. Vincent, All Born Screaming
Best Rap Performance
Cardi B, “Enough (Miami)”
Common & Pete Rock feat. Posdnuos, “When the Sun Shines Again”
Doechii, “Nissan Altima”
Eminem, “Houdini”
Future, Metro Boomin & Kendrick Lamar, “Like That”
Glorilla, “Yeah Glo!”
Kendrick Lamar, “Not Like Us”
Common and Posdnuos presumably collaborated because they’re the only codgers who can still get nominated in this category. Well, besides Eminem who’s still in sixth grade. Cardi can still turn a tossed-off one-off into the rap event of the year just by gracing it with her presence but not this year. A Glo win would be glorious indeed but she’s already lost to a much, much less important Kendrick song. No one inclined to vote for “Like That” is picking it over “Not Like Us.” That leaves only Doechii, a wild card if there ever was one, who could become awards-show catnip very soon but may have campaigned too late for this go-round.
Should Win: Doechii, “Nissan Altima”
Will Win: Kendrick Lamar, “Not Like Us”
Did Win: Kendrick Lamar, “Not Like Us”
Best Rap Song
¥$, Kanye West, Ty Dolla $ign & Rich the Kid feat. Playboi Carti, “Carnival”
Rapsody & Hit-Boy, “Asteroids”
Future, Metro Boomin & Kendrick Lamar, “Like That”
Glorilla, “Yeah Glo!”
Kendrick Lamar, “Not Like Us”
I’d rather see Rapsody’s sizzling Wayne duet in her spot but this award has one job only: to not end up in the hands of rap’s own Trump. I don’t see that happening but the world is full of crushing disappointments even with the bar in hell and “Carnival” is one of the three Hot 100 number-ones here.
Should Win: anyone but fucking Kanye
Will Win: Kendrick Lamar, “Not Like Us”
Did Win: Kendrick Lamar, “Not Like Us”
Best Rap Album
Common & Pete Rock, The Auditorium Vol. 1
Doechii, Alligator Bites Never Heal
Eminem, The Death of Slim Shady (Coup de Grâce)
Future & Metro Boomin, We Don’t Trust You
J. Cole, Might Delete Later
Yes, Eminem has won this award six times, but four of those were for good albums and four of them deserved it. (I’m sorry, you wanted Wiz Khalia’s Blacc Hollywood in 2014? Iggy Azalea’s The New Classic? Because the Internet?) I do not believe that fuzzy unformed recall of that Slim Shady title in the minds of admittedly the world’s second-most complacent voters will eclipse their vague awareness of Doechii’s kickass TV/Tiny Desk/year-end appearances. I’m only willing to put so much faith into Grammy voters and this is one of those times.
Should Win: Doechii, Alligator Bites Never Heal
Will Win: Doechii, Alligator Bites Never Heal
Did Win: Doechii, Alligator Bites Never Heal
Best Dance Pop Recording
Ariana Grande, “Yes, And?”
Billie Eilish, “L’Amour de Ma Vie [Over Now Extended Edit]”
Charli XCX, “Von Dutch”
Madison Beer, “Make You Mine”
Troye Sivan, “Got Me Started”
Ariana has far fewer Grammy wins than you’d expect; Diplo has twice as many as her. This trophy has only ever been awarded once before, so it’s an untested category, but Kylie Minogue winning in 2024 (albeit for a widely recognized Good Song) tells you its voting committee isn’t afraid of crossover outsiders like Billie. Still, that Ari song hit number-one and with her inescapable Wicked blitz she’s quickly becoming part of the industry firmament; I say this is where she earns Grammy #3 despite Brat’s best-case scenario both song- and category-wise.
Should Win: Charli XCX, “Von Dutch”
Will Win: Ariana Grande, “Yes, And?”
Did Win: Charli XCX, “Von Dutch”
Best Pop Solo Performance
Beyoncé, “Bodyguard”
Billie Eilish, “Birds of a Feather”
Chappell Roan, “Good Luck, Babe!”
Charli XCX, “Apple”
Sabrina Carpenter, “Espresso”
This is where things get tricky — you could make a convincing argument for all five of these based on either the artists’ award history or their ratio of respectability to visibility in the eyes of the almighty Industry. I love Sabrina to death but she’s the first to go; clever and funny serotonin doses of little emotional import do not historically beat proven Grammy titans like Billie or Bey. Then there’s Charli who got a lot more ink and pixels for her similarly weightless trifle but feels strangely small here with this particular song in this particular company, even compared to Beyoncé’s non-hit “Bodyguard” that still swaggers with gravitas and grace. Of the newbs, Chappell Roan is the only one who feels like she has that kind of juice and broke out with the right song to carry this, but she still has yet to be tested, and who knows if Grammy voters would be turned off by her heavily conceptual drag look or some other bullshit. Other than a bunch of Adele wins, this award doesn’t have any overarching pattern, but it’s historically leaned Respectable over Fun with the exception of Lizzo’s “Truth Hurts” and maybe “Royals.” Considering all the Grammy upsets she already has behind her at age 23, this might be where Billie reminds us “Birds of a Feather” was a bigger hit than anything by Sabrina, Chappell, or Charli last year.
Should Win: Chappell Roan, “Good Luck, Babe!”
Will Win: Billie Eilish, “Birds of a Feather”
Did Win: Sabrina Carpenter, “Espresso”
Best Pop Duo/Group Performance
Ariana Grande feat. Brandy & Monica, “The Boy Is Mine (Remix)”
Beyoncé feat. Post Malone, “Levii’s Jeans”
Gracie Abrams feat. Taylor Swift, “Us”
Charli XCX feat. Billie Eilish, “Guess (Remix)”
Lady Gaga & Bruno Mars, “Die With a Smile”
Fun as it would be to see horny Billie and honorary gay/queerbaiting Charli take this one, this is another of those side-quest trophies that Beyoncé’s as great at collecting as she is at losing Big Four awards to white people, and it’s a good song, too. Still, Bruno Mars has secured bigger wins with only Anderson .Paak in tow and here he wields post-Star Is Born Gaga, which wouldn’t be notable (Joker, y’all) if it wasn’t currently sitting on top of the Hot 100 as I type. The last time she had a number-one hit it also won this award. Industry Gaga isn’t my favorite Gaga but we all knew she was coming, and this song (which I don’t dislike) is enough removed from her own Brat-predicting floor-squelch that it’s probably time for her coronation.
Should Win: Beyoncé feat. Post Malone, “Levii’s Jeans”
Will Win: Lady Gaga & Bruno Mars, “Die With a Smile”
Did Win: Lady Gaga & Bruno Mars, “Die With a Smile”
Best Pop Vocal Album
Ariana Grande, Eternal Sunshine
Billie Eilish, Hit Me Hard and Soft
Chappell Roan, The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess
Sabrina Carpenter, Short n’ Sweet
Taylor Swift, The Tortured Poets Department
One not-bad album I’m fine to play again, one not-bad album I really don’t want to play again, and three albums I’ve heard many, many times, two of which for active pleasure. So this qualifies as a best-case scenario. Unless it goes to Taylor. Short of pulling off one of those big-four Billie ‘19 sweeps, though, I think this is where the untested Chappell is guaranteed.
Should Win: Sabrina Carpenter, Short n’ Sweet
Will Win: Chappell Roan, The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess
Did Win: Sabrina Carpenter, Short n’ Sweet
Best New Artist
Benson Boone
Doechii
Chappell Roan
Khruangbin
Raye
Sabrina Carpenter
Shaboozey
Teddy Swims
Despite the most dubious of the Big Four having more heavy-hitters than ever — to wit, the makers of 2024’s two biggest hit songs, 2024’s most beloved rap rookie, and two of the year’s biggest pop stars — I think there’s one clear and obvious call. Chappell Roan embodies everything about this stupid award: the good (her music), the bad (her kerfuffles), and the nebulousness of the word “new” by scoring huge in not only award nominations but also critics’ polls with a 2023 album that steadily steamrolled over 2024. It’s just too bad they snubbed Charli XCX whose debut album is only 12 years old.
Should Win: Chappell Roan
Will Win: Chappell Roan
Did Win: Chappell Roan
Song of the Year
Beyoncé, “Texas Hold ’Em”
Billie Eilish, “Birds of a Feather”
Chappell Roan, “Good Luck, Babe!”
Kendrick Lamar, “Not Like Us”
Lady Gaga & Bruno Mars, “Die With a Smile”
Sabrina Carpenter, “Please Please Please”
Shaboozey, “A Bar Song (Tipsy)”
Taylor Swift feat. Post Malone, “Fortnight”
Songwriter’s award, so there goes Shaboozey’s J-Kwon interpolation. I don’t think “Texas Hold ‘Em” is what finally nabs Queen Bey her second one after “Single Ladies,” and for that matter I don’t think “Fortnight” nabs Taylor her first SOTY win ever. Sabrina doesn’t give me Big Four vibes but if she had a song that really showed off what the Academy considers Artistry it would be this one. Bruno and Billie have taken it before, but I don’t think the previous competition was much stronger than this. Kendrick…lol, who knows man. I don’t see it. I could be very, very wrong, and very, very blinded by my own idea of Great Songwriting versus a bunch of dumb people’s, but “Good Luck, Babe!” is the one that stands out to me as a gigantic flashing duh from this batch, and I’d love to see it. I won’t be surprised if “Birds of a Feather” trounces it either, but I’m feeling good about Chappell here.
Should Win: Chappell Roan, “Good Luck, Babe!”
Will Win: Chappell Roan, “Good Luck, Babe!”
Did Win: Kendrick Lamar, “Not Like Us”
Album of the Year
André 3000, New Blue Sun
Beyoncé, Cowboy Carter
Billie Eilish, Hit Me Hard and Soft
Chappell Roan, The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess
Charli XCX, Brat
Jacob Collier, Djesse Vol. 4
Sabrina Carpenter, Short n’ Sweet
Taylor Swift, The Tortured Poets Department
Since this is a more exciting year and tougher call than usual, let’s do some eliminations. A Jacob Collier win would be fucking hilarious, but he’s not Herbie Hancock or even Jon Batiste. We should know better about Beyoncé by now, but the populace seems just slightly annoyed enough by her at this point that it feels like she might finally be ready to be someone else’s Beck. Still, don’t think so. It’s definitely not Brat or Short n’ Sweet. Billie…other than the freak Record of the Year win for “Everything I Wanted” (no, you don’t remember it), her Grammy success seems to mirror her commercial success and lack thereof, so I’m putting more of my eggs in the “Birds of a Feather” basket even though Hit Me Hard or Soft did well.
That leaves three. Chappell, who’s untested, and I can See the Big Sweep but she’s got bigger obstacles than Billie did up against Lana/Lizzo/H.E.R./Lil Nas X/Bon Iver/Ariana/Vampire Weekend in 2020. Previous winner Three Stacks, who made a longass New Age-Hassell flute album I can’t believe I love which also deserves this because the institution is just too silly. But sadly this establishment deserves something much more boring, and it probably has it coming.
It’s true that Taylor’s other four wins were for her four most popular albums, which The Tortured Poets Department is not. And it’s also true that the biggest star on Earth’s ironclad grip on the culture has waned so much that she couldn’t deliver Kamala Harris. But despite just a couple hits-in-name-only it still topped the album chart for more than four months in a year where pop listeners were made aware of plenty of passionately beloved alternatives. If there was ever an institution that rewarded astronomically popular people overstaying their welcome artistically, it’s this one. Other than Jacob Collier, any other nominee could take this award and I’d be much happier. But it’s the biggest star on Earth’s to lose.
Should Win: André 3000, New Blue Sun
Will Win: Taylor Swift, The Tortured Poets Department
Did Win: Beyoncé, Cowboy Carter
Record of the Year
The Beatles, “Now and Then”
Beyoncé, “Texas Hold ’Em”
Billie Eilish, “Birds of a Feather”
Chappell Roan, “Good Luck, Babe!”
Charli XCX, “360”
Kendrick Lamar, “Not Like Us”
Sabrina Carpenter, “Espresso”
Taylor Swift Featuring Post Malone, “Fortnight”
Look. The Grammys are not your soulmate. They’re always going to let you down, run around, desert you, etc. So let them be a fun one-night stand. Almost everyone in this category would be fun to see lose to the Beatles. It would also be fun to see almost any of them beat the Beatles (except for Taylor of course, who is No Fun). Of course, the most fun thing of all would be perpetual Grammy-snub Drake receiving 337 texts letting him know “Not Like Us” won the biggest award in music (jk of course he will be watching). But this is a case where it would also be fun for all of us fools who keep watching this shit to get exactly what we deserve. Which is the AI Beatles.
Should Win: Kendrick Lamar, “Not Like Us”
Will Win: The Beatles, “Now and Then”
Did Win: Kendrick Lamar, “Not Like Us”